Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Tuesday Morning Number Crunching

This isn’t usually my style, but with all the Bertuzzi talk, I thought it might be nice to take a second and do some calculations (and estimates) to look how we’re shaking up after getting “hammered” in free-agency.

Here is what we lost…

Name G-A (08-09)
Hossa 40-31
Sammy 19-21
Hudler 23-34
Kopecky 6-13
Total 88-99

Here is what we have gained (or may)…

Name G-A (08-09)
J-Wills 19-28
Eaves 6-8
Bertuzzi 15-29
Total 40-65

Looks pretty bad, even with Bertuzzi, doesn’t it? We’re currently 48 goals, 34 assists, a total 82 points shy of last year’s production. Well hold on, because I’m not done yet.

Let’s look at one more addition, that of Ville Leino who will spend the entire year with the big club. This is where we start getting into hypotheticals.

Leino last year had 5 goals and 4 assists in 13 games played. That’s an average 0.692 points per game. Extrapolate that average to an 82 game season and he tallies 57 points this year or roughly (based on goals and assists last year) 32 goals and 25 assists.

So now that brings our “addition” total to 72-90 with Leino’s numbers. So now we’re only looking at a loss of 26 goals, 9 assists for a total of 35 points below what we were last year. That’s looking a little more manageable. 32 goals is a tall order for Dr. eVille, but we are expecting a little more than 14 points from Mr. Eaves so perhaps that will help balance out if Leino can’t quite reach near 60 points.

Factor in the notion that Franzen and Zetterberg’s numbers will increase this year, with Z getting back in the 90 point range and the Mule hitting 40 goals along with possible extra contribution from Filppula and Cleary, and we may be doing just fine. Plus, if Osgood can have improve on his regular season GAA and Save %, which isn’t unreasonable to ask, then any loss of production may be made up in better defense (especially on the PK).

Like I said, I’m more of an opinion guy than a numbers guy. But I thought I’d step up and take a swing. Sorry, no Corsi numbers here.


  1. I know it's been talked about every time somebody brings up the relevant numbers the Wings lost in free agency and you even covered it in the post, but last year was simply an aberration and I'm perfectly happy with not repeating those offensive numbers if the defensive stats are going to remain as bad as they did last year. Let in fewer goals and you don't have to score as many.

  2. Plus, you have to add in a handful of points each for Ericsson and Helm. I don't think 5-10 goals from each would be out of the realm of possibility.

    Plus, as JJ says, last year was an aberration.

    Hossa's 40 goals replaces Drake's THREE, so it's ridiculous to suggest that the Wings are really losing all those Hossa goals, especially if we can rebound defensively, which I fully expect. Hell, giving Helm some regular PK shifts will in itself improve our PK. We can't expect every PK shift for him to be "The Shift", but you know he's going to be a PK monster.

  3. Oh. My. God. That guy banging on the glass in that picture is PRECIOUS.